At the beginning of the month we looked at the 4 key objective, measurable real estate indicators and compared the annual statistics (2011 vs. 2010) for Rumson and Fair Haven. In the past we’ve also drilled down and looked at 2011 single-family home sales by number of bedrooms, waterfront vs. non-waterfront, etc. (to review those posts, click on my name and look through the listings until you find the ones you want).
This week we’re going to see what the 4 key real estate indicators looked like at the end of the first quarter of 2012. Just as a review, those 4 indicators are:
1. Sales Activity (Demand) – How many properties sold in the 2012 quarter compared to the same quarter in 2011). If sales are increasing, prices are likely to increase as well; if sales are declining, prices may continue to decline.
2. Listing Activity (Supply) – The number of homes for sale in your area. If the number is increasing using the same year-over-year comparison as above, prices are likely to drop to absorb the additional inventory; if the inventory is dropping, it may not be long before prices increase.
3. Months’ Supply of Homes for Sale (Absorption Rate) – A calculation of the number of months it would take to sell the current supply of homes if home sales continue at the present rate. A “normal market” is usually 5 – 7 months for average priced homes, and tends to increase as you move into the higher price ranges. We’ve been in a “buyer’s market” (greater than 7 months) for the past few years. If the supply is trending back to the 5 -7 months average, home prices may be increasing.
4. Average or Median Sales Price (Value) – The prices of homes sold last year/quarter compared with the previous year/quarter. If prices have dropped, they may continue to drop in the future. If prices have stabilized or have started to increase, an increase in the future may be at hand.
Here are the data for the first quarter:
Town Year Sales Active Listings Months’ Supply Avg Price Median Price
Rumson 2012 24 74 10.3 months $1,132,634 $1,131,667
Rumson 2011 13 65 16.3 months $1,318,583 $1,165,000
Fair 2012 12 52 15.2 months $ 611,055 $ 623,583
Haven 2011 16 33 7.0 months $ 562,672 $ 547,167
Monmouth 2012 822 3,755 14.0 months $ 443,881 $345,000
County 2011 729 3,411 13.7 months $ 438,784 $ 359,000
Positive signals are indicated in bold font and negative signals are indicated in italic font; if neither bold font nor italic font was used, the numbers were too close to be statistically significant.
For Monmouth County as a whole, there were both more sales (positive) and more listings (negative), with little change in the other 3 indicators. Rumson and Fair Haven are small towns, and I always hesitate to come to any conclusions if we’re talking about less than 20 sales. Therefore I don’t put a whole lot of faith in the Rumson or Fair Haven indicators thus far this year, and the indicators are mixed anyway. I’ll keep you up to date every month as more homes are sold and the year-to-date data grow.