Mid-Year Update on Fair Haven Home Sales

 

Earlier this month (July 2nd) I reported that 25% more Rumson homes had sold in the first half of this year compared to last year, and that there was a slight increase in the median selling price. Today let’s take a look at what’s happened in Fair Haven.

Although we’re seeing a slightly higher number of home sales in Fair Haven, the increase isn’t as dramatic as the one in Rumson yet. However, there are a lot of “pending” sales, i.e., homes Under Contract, and they’ve already started to close in July (see yesterday’s post).

With many people on vacation, July and August are traditionally slow months for real estate, but I predict that we’ll have strong Fair Haven home sales in the fall, and a significant percentage increase in average/median selling price by the end of the year. I’ll make a note on my January 2013 calendar and will include a post that tells if my prediction was correct.

For Fair Haven, both the average and the median (not shown on table below) selling prices are down slightly at mid year, but take a look at the Absorption Rate:

 

January – June (6 Months Year To Date)

2011

2012

Comment

Sales (Demand)

37

39

Slightly higher sales.
Listings (Supply)

46

47

Similar numbers.
Months’ Supply (Absorption Rate)

8.3

7.2

Homes selling faster.
Average Sale $ (Value)

$707,667

$680,825

3.8% lower sales price.
Average Listing $

$739,072

$709,797

4.0% lower listing price.
 Avg Sale/List %

95.8%

95.9%

Similar percentages.

 

The Absorption Rate is the length of time that it would take to sell all of the homes that are listed for sale, assuming that the current rate of sales remains constant. In a “normal market” the Absorption Rate is between 5 and 7 months, but for the past few years the Absorption Rate has been MUCH higher than 7 months (meaning that we’ve been in a “buyer’s market”. For Fair Haven, the Absorption Rate has moved from 8.3 months a year ago to 7.2 months now. That’s almost back to a “normal market”!

The Absorption Rate for Fair Haven is much lower than it is for Monmouth County as a whole, and we know that Monmouth County’s rate is lower than New Jersey’s as a whole. This is just conformation of what we already know- the Rumson-Fair Haven area is a great place to live, and people continue to want to move here.

We’ve compiled a lot of town-by-town research about the local real estate market, and if you’d like me to discuss it with you, just email me at ldunikoski@dianeturton.com or call me at (732) 239-0739. Use the data to help you make a decision if you’re thinking of buying or selling a home in the next few months.

Len

 

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