Fair Haven Real Estate Update

Rumson-Fair Haven REALTOR

Leonard “Len” Dunikoski
Realtor Associate
Diane Turton Realtors – Rumson Office
8 West River Road
Rumson, NJ 07760

(732) 239-0739  cell     (732) 539-6686 office

ldunikoski@dianeturton.com

At the end of 8 months, Fair Haven single-family home sales volume is up by 13%, and the median selling price is about the same as it was a year ago.  It’s surprising that home prices aren’t increasing, since the combination of more sales, fewer homes on the market, and a shorter real estate absorption rate normally predict higher selling prices. Here are the numbers in tabular form:

Fair Haven Home Sales, January – August (8 Months Year To Date)

2011

2012

Comment

Sales (Demand)

56

63

13% more sales.
Listings (Supply)

48

39

19% fewer listings.
Months’ Supply (Absorption Rate)

6.8

6.4

Still a “normal market”.
Average Sale $ (Value)

$723,339

$689,626

5% lower average sales price.
Median Sale $ (Value)

$665,750

$662,000

1% lower median sales price.

As I’ve explained in previous posts, using the median sales price is better than using the average sales price as an indicator of the real estate market. The median is the point at which 50% sold for more and 50% sold for less, whereas the simple arithmetic average can be skewed by one or two outliers.

Fair Haven home prices have remained stable for the past 3 years, with 8 month Year-to-Date medians of $660,000 in 2010, $665,750 in 2011 and $662,000 this year. You may view this price stability as either being a good thing or a bad thing. On one hand, Fair Haven homes have retained their value, and Fair Haven home prices are still significantly lower than they are in Rumson. On the other hand, if you bought your home 3 years ago you haven’t seen any appreciation on its value.

Let’s put the past 3 years in perspective. If we look back 10 years (to 2002), the 8 month Year-to-Date median home price in Fair Haven was $400,000. Had you bought a home at that time, you’d have a lot more equity in your property. What will the median home price be 10 years from now? No one can say for sure, but historically real estate has increased in value between 3% and 5% per year. Isn’t it possible that we may “make up” the 9% to 15% increase that historically would have happened in 3 years? No one knows for sure, and we might have 3 more years of stable prices. However, with the massive increases in the money supply over the last 4 years, my personal prediction is that renewed inflation will force home prices higher, regardless of who wins the upcoming Presidential election.

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This entry was posted in Fair Haven Homes Sold, Fair Haven Local Expert, Fair Haven Real Estate, Rumson-Fair Haven. Bookmark the permalink.

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