The Fair Haven real estate market is still struggling for direction. Almost untouched by water damage from Sandy last year, you’d think that Fair Haven might be a better example of the “true” real estate market than neighboring towns like Rumson and Little Silver, which experienced significant flooding in last year’s storm. Unfortunately that hasn’t been the case.
Here are Fair Haven’s 2013 Year-to-Date statistics:
Sales: 56 in 2012, 48 in 2013 (-14%)
Listings: 37 in 2012, 32 at the end of July 2013 (-14%)
Median Sales Price: $647,500 in 2012, $612,500 in 2013 (-5%)
Average Sales Price: $672,141 in 2012, $786,150 in 2013 (+17%)
Absorption Rate: 6.1 months in 2012, 4.3 months now (stronger Demand vs. Supply)
The real estate absorption rate has been less than 5 month since March. Remember that the absorption rate is a calculation of how long it would take to sell all of the houses currently on the market, assuming that houses continue to sell at the current (12 month) rate. An absorption rate of 5 – 7 months is considered a “normal market”, while less than 5 months is considered a “seller’s market”. Well, in a “seller’s market” we expect to see higher median prices, and that hasn’t been the case; the median home price in Fair Haven is down 5%.
Yes, the average Fair Haven home price is up significantly, but that’s a result of two homes that each sold for more than $3 million. I’ve been telling you all along that the median price (the point at which 50% of homes sold for more and 50% sold for less) is a more realistic real estate indicator than the mathematical average.
So what’s going to happen to Fair Haven home prices in the next few months? The number of listings is down 14%, and normally prices go up when fewer houses are available to buyers. If mortgage rates had remained constant, I’d have no problem predicting that we’d see higher prices before the end of the year. However, mortgage rates are up slightly and it’s not clear what will happen to them in the next few months. If you’re looking to buy a home in Fair Haven you might want to do so sooner rather than later. Let me know what you’re looking for and I’ll be glad to help you find the right home before mortgage rates go up some more.
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