If you’ve been following my blog, you know that I’m a data geek- I LOVE having lots of data, and I document every home sale in Fair Haven and Rumson on an extensive spreadsheet. Having all that data available, you can look at all sorts of things, including an evaluation of how accurate a town’s asssed home values are in predicting home sales prices. On September 1st I took a look at the 2014 year-to-date sales prices of Fair Haven homes and compared them with the 2014 assessed values. At that time there had been 61 homes sold (I excluded new construction) and the average sales price was 110% of the average assessed value. Now that we’ve had 4 more months of sales and finished the year, I thought I’d take another look.
Looking at my Excel spreadsheet, I found 85 homes that sold in 2014 and weren’t new construction. Of those 85 homes, only 12 (14% of the total) sold for less than their 2014 assessed values, and only one (1) sold for less than 90% of its assessed value.
The average Fair Haven home sold for 111% of its 2014 assessed value- not much of a change from what we saw at the end of August. But let’s drill down into the nubers: 45 homes (53% of the total) sold for between 90% and 110% of their assessed values, and 68 homes (80% of the total) sold for between 80% and 120% of their assessed values. Sixteen (16) homes (19% of the total) sold for more than 20% over their assessed values, and ten (10) homes (12% of the total) sold for more than 25% over their assessed values. 67% of homes sold for between 100% and 120% of their assessed values.
We’re in a new year, and most of Fair Haven’s 2015 assessments are higher than they were in 2014. Will 2015’s average selling price be closer to the new average assessed value? We’ll have to take another look later in the year- stay tuned.
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