If you’re considering buying a house in Rumson, I’ve got some bad news for you. At the end of the 2nd quarter, the 4 key objective real estate indicators were evenly balanced: 2 were positive for home buyers and 2 were negative. Now that we’ve reached the end of the 3rd quarter, all 4 indicators are negative for home buyers.
Sales volume increased: more Rumson homes sold in the 3rd quarter of 2015 than in the first 2 quarters combined, and more homes sold year-to-date than in the same time last year. If you’ve been reading my posts you know how each of the 4 indicators predicts the future of the local real estate market. What happens when volume (demand) goes up? That’s right, prices tend to increase. Here are the numbers for the 4 key objective indicators. If any had been good news for home buyers, they would have been shown in italics and underlined, and as you can see, none of them are currently positive:
Rumson Single-Family Home Sales, January 1 – September 30
2014 2015 Comment
Sales 78 88 13% more homes sold.
Listings/Month* 78 73 6% fewer homes on market.
Months Supply* 8.1 7.6 Stronger demand vs. supply.
Median Sale $1,157,500 $1,237,500 7% higher median sales price.
*based on the previous 12 months of listings
Now the 2nd indicator: what happens when the number of listings (supply) go down? Fewer listings also tend to drive up prices. The 3rd indicator (the real estate absorption rate or months’ supply) shows the effect of strengthening demand vs. weakening supply. It would take fewer months to sell all the homes that are on the market now than it would have at the end of September 2014. The reverse was true at the end of the 2nd quarter. If there’s any silver lining for home buyers, it’s that an absorption rate over 7.0 months is technically still considered a “buyer’s market”. The number was 8.5 at the end of the 2nd quarter.
The last indicator, the median sales price, is up 7%, whereas it was only up 2% at the end of the 2nd quarter. If you recall last year’s statistics, the median Rumson sales price was up 7% at the end of 2014, so the rate of increase appears to be holding steady. If you’re the kind of person who looks for the bright side of every situation, you can be glad that the rate of increase isn’t accelerating.
November, December and January are months when not many homes are on the market. However, the sellers who do have listings active in those months tend to be more motivated than the average seller. Not many potential buyers are out there in November – January either, so on one hand you’ll have less competition if you find a house you like. However, the buyers who are still looking also tend to be more motivated, so if there’s a new listing for a house that’s priced at or below the market, you may have to make a faster decision or risk losing the house to someone else. I monitor new Rumson-Fair Haven listings several times a day, so f you let me know what you’re looking for I’d be glad to text, call or email you as soon as anything meeting your criteria comes on the market.
This is my 325th post, so I think you already know my feelings about calling a listing agent when you’re the buyer. If you don’t, please take a look at the last paragraph in yesterday’s post about the Fair Haven. Market.
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